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African American DNA Research Forum

Re: Add Your Test Results to a Database

Anna,

Wow, that's sad. So sorry. I hope not to get the same response IF I find a perfect 25/25 match. The 8/8 match researcher was very cordial and answered all my questions about his ancestor. However, at no time did I state that we might be related ;) Experiences like yours are a lesson for us all but shouldn't deter us from our mission to find our ancestors WHOEVER they may be.

My understanding of the probabilities of a MRCA (most recent common ancestor) are:

- 12/12 match = a 50% chance of a MRCA within the last 14 generations
- 21/21 match = a 50% chance of a MRCA within the last 8 generations
- 37/37 match = a 50% chance of a MRCA within the last 5 generations

Not the certainty we're all looking for but if there's a paper trail, then the probabilities will be higher.

My match was not a surname I'd ever associated with my family but when I researched the match family using info from the Ysearch database and a pedigree on WorldConnect, one member ended up as an overseer on a plantation right in my GF's backyard in 1860 (the year before GF was born). What are the chances of that? Well, we'll certainly see. Might turn out to be a fluke when I get the 25 markers back but can't wait.

B.J.


18 Dec 2002 :: 14 Nov 2008
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